US-China thaw revives G-2 fears, dimming India's global clout

Newsroom, November 03, 2025: Recent overtures between Washington and Beijing, including a surprise Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of APEC, have sparked concerns over a resurgent G-2 framework where the U.S. and China dictate global agendas, potentially marginalising India as a swing power. Analysts describe the warming as pragmatic, driven by mutual trade concessions like eased tech export curbs and joint climate pledges, but it echoes the 2009 G-2 concept that sidelined emerging players like India during financial crises.

With Trump touting a "complete deal" to resolve tariffs, New Delhi faces a squeeze: its Quad role with the U.S. clashes with deepening economic reliance on China, now its top trading partner at $135 billion annually.

The shift could limit India's leverage in forums like the WTO or UN, where bilateral pacts bypass multilateral input. Foreign policy voices in New Delhi stress diversification, bolstering ties with the EU and ASEAN, but warn of a "strategic chill" if G-2 solidifies, echoing 2010s patterns where U.S.-China deals on climate or IP left India negotiating scraps.