Getting aced in to Bihar assembly

Bihar's assembly elections, kicking off with a record 65% turnout in the first phase on November 7, 2025, have already transcended the ballot box, becoming a referendum on the state's enduring paradoxes: migration as both curse and catalyst, democracy under siege from "vote theft" allegations, and a political class more adept at division than delivery. As voters in 121 constituencies braved long queues despite ECI's voter list revisions, the narrative shifted from caste arithmetic to broader anxieties—unemployment, women's empowerment, and the ghost of "jungle raj." With NDA's star campaigners like Modi and Yogi blanketing the state and Mahagathbandhan's Tejashwi Yadav shouldering the opposition's load, the polls expose Bihar's fragile equilibrium: a state that gave India its first republic yet now feels like a lost one, betrayed by leaders more focused on power plays than progress.

The migration debate dominates, but opposition parties like RJD and Congress frame it as "palayan"—exile from a forsaken homeland—missing its empowering undercurrents. As anthropologist Badri Narayan argues, migration has elevated socio-economic status for 50% of Bihar households, with remittances funding pucca homes and lavish weddings, granting dignity to once-marginalized families. Bhojpuri folklore now celebrates the "nukariha" migrant as a hero, not victim, yet politicians peddle victimhood to stoke sympathy, ignoring how it disrupts households while building futures. This misreading risks alienating the very youth it claims to champion: 9.3 million seasonal migrants who return to vote, seeking jobs not pity. In a state where credit fuels aspiration, such narratives ring hollow, perpetuating the developmental pessimism that Bihar has outgrown. 

Amid the fray, Rahul Gandhi's "H bomb"—alleging widespread voter fraud using a Brazilian model's photo on multiple IDs—has dominated headlines, yet it crumbles under scrutiny. The ECI's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) aims to purge ghosts from rolls, but Gandhi's claims, echoed in Haryana and now Bihar, reveal a pattern: selective outrage that erodes trust without evidence. Booth agents filed few complaints despite thousands deployed, and the Brazilian model's image was a photo error on valid cards, not fraud. As Tavleen Singh notes, this tactic admits defeat before votes are counted, distracting from substantive issues like Nitish Kumar's welfare promises to women, who form 49% of Bihar's electorate and may tip the scales toward continuity. In a democracy where high turnout signals faith in the process, such cries undermine the very institutions opposition needs to win. 

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party emerges as the wildcard, embodying Roosevelt's arena of daring: at 48, the strategist turned candidate fields mathematicians and activists, challenging the Lalu-Nitish duopoly with a schoolbag symbol promising education over identity. His padyatra across 3,500 km exposed Bihar's poverty—130 million people, 11th-largest if independent—yet his vision of lifting prohibition for school funding and universal pensions resonates with aspirational voters. Though early bypolls yielded losses, Kishor's audacity disrupts caste fiefdoms, forcing NDA and Mahagathbandhan to confront complacency. As Rohit Lamba observes, win or lose, his imagination injects vitality into a stale contest, reminding Bihar that democracy thrives on alternatives, not alliances of convenience. 

Women, long sidelined in Bihar's male-dominated discourse, now hold the key, with Nitish's promises of pensions and safety nets contrasting Tejashwi's youth appeal. A Phule-Ambedkarite lens on Mahagathbandhan's manifesto reveals nods to land rights and anti-caste measures, but implementation lags. High turnout—up 5% from 2020—signals women's agency, from RJD's "ladki hain toh ladki jeetegi" slogan to NDA's welfare focus. Yet, ugly campaigning, with BJP's "infiltrator" jibes and Congress's fraud cries, risks alienating this bloc. As Aditi Narayani Paswan argues, Bihar's women are agents of change, not pawns; their votes could shatter the NDA's edge in polls predicting 130-140 seats. 

Nitish Kumar's longevity—his first full term sparked by a 2005 Moscow call from President Kalam to Manmohan Singh—exemplifies Bihar's enduring intrigue. From Samata Party's brief 2000 stint to JD(U)'s NDA pivot, Kumar's pragmatism has stabilized governance, but at democracy's cost: alliances flip like monsoon winds. BJP's bid to eclipse JD(U), deploying Yogi and Shah while eyeing the CM post, exposes NDA fractures. Praveen Chakravarty warns against Bihar-style voter roll cleanups elsewhere, where exclusions target minorities. As polls predict NDA's 130-140 seats versus Mahagathbandhan's 90-100, the real winner may be turnout itself, affirming Bihar's democratic pulse despite the din. 

Bihar's polls, with their "cold calculations" of fronts and caste, demand more than survival: a vision beyond Mandal and Buddha. Shekhar Gupta laments the "lost republic," where politics obsesses over power not prosperity. Yet, high turnout amid fraud fears—EVM scrutiny and 64.66% participation—affirms faith in the process. As Sanjay Malhotra's RBI reforms unlock credit, Bihar needs similar fiscal imagination: makhana exports, women's pensions, and migration as mobility, not misery.