Coffee costs soar as global chaos hits India’s growers

Coffee prices are soaring as geopolitics, bureaucracy, and climate change tighten their grip, yet India’s farmers see little of the gains despite surging global demand. Extreme weather has slashed harvests worldwide, pushing Arabica bean prices on the New York futures exchange to over double since October 2023, nearing $4 per pound. In India, where coffee grows in states like Karnataka and Kerala, production struggles mirror those in Brazil and Vietnam, leaving growers squeezed while middlemen profit.

Climate change has hit hard, with erratic rains and heat disrupting India’s coffee belts. Take Karnataka’s Coorg region, a key Arabica producer: farmers like Prakash Gowda report yields dropping from 12,000 bags in 2020 to 7,000 last year due to late monsoons. “We sell early to pay debts, missing the price boom,” Gowda said. Brazil, the top exporter, and Vietnam, a Robusta giant, face similar woes—droughts and dry inventories—driving global shortages. Vanusia Nogueira, head of the International Coffee Organization, notes, “Producers adapt with irrigation and new varieties, but it’s not enough to offset losses yet.”

Geopolitical tensions add fuel. US tariffs and Middle East shipping attacks disrupt trade, while EU red tape—like delayed deforestation rules—creates uncertainty, spiking costs. India’s coffee exports, vital to Europe, face compliance burdens, yet demand rises unabated—up 1.8% globally in 2024. Still, farmers here invest cautiously; new plantations take three years to yield. Nogueira sees hope in adaptation, citing rising yields since the 1960s and emerging regions like South Africa. For India, balancing these pressures means resilience now, with prosperity a distant promise.