Newsroom, November 30, 2025: India's population will peak at 1.7 billion around 2060 before stabilising by 2080, according to the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024, a shift fueled by the total fertility rate dipping to 2.0 in 2024 from 6.2 in 1950, now aligning with global averages.
The report highlights a demographic dividend turning into dependency, with the working-age group (15-64) peaking at 59% in 2041 before declining to 49% by 2100, pressing the need for health investments to support a ballooning elderly cohort projected at 347 million by 2054, up from 138 million in 2021.
The UN's medium variant forecast sees India's share of global population falling to 15% by 2100 from 18% in 2024, with Uttar Pradesh remaining the most populous state at 241 million by 2054.
Andhra's fertility rate, at 1.7, below replacement, signals a quicker stabilization, but uneven distribution rural 2.1 vs urban 1.4 exacerbates regional imbalances. Experts like P.M. Kulkarni from Jawaharlal Nehru University note that while the dip averts a Malthusian crisis, it risks a "demographic winter" without immigration or pro-natal policies.
